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Zimbabwe, 2012 ("2013 AFRICA" analysis)

Reports > Loxodonta africana > 2012 > Africa > Southern Africa > Zimbabwe

All Years for Zimbabwe: 20132007200219981995

2012 Summary Totals for Zimbabwe

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts 304 0 0 0
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 41,840 3,775 3,775 0
Informed Guesses 0 0 0 0
Other Guesses 5,222 0 0 45,375
Totals 2012 47,366 3,775 3,775 45,375
Totals 2007 84,416 7,033 7,367 291

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data Category Known Range Possible Range Total Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts 1,283 0 1,283
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 37,710 0 37,710
Informed Guesses 175 0 175
Other Guesses 36,104 0 36,104
Unassessed Range 1,283 375 1,658
Totals 76,554 375 76,930

Zimbabwe: Elephant Estimates

Cause of Survey Details 2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input Zone Change 1 Type Reliab. Year Estimate 95% C.L. Source PFS 3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Binga Communal Lands - AS B 2006 431 373 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 2,217 27.9E 17.4S
    Binga - AS B 2006 431 373 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 2,217 27.9E 17.4S
+ Bubiana Conservancy DD O E 2001 50 50* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 1,772 29.8E 21.1S
    Bubiana DD O E 2001 50 50* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 1,772 29.8E 21.1S
+ Bubi Valley Conservancy DD O E 2001 53 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 2,895 30.1E 21.5S
    Bubi Valley DD O E 2001 53 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 2,895 30.1E 21.5S
+ Chete Safari Area - AS B 2006 971 310 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,260 27.8E 17.4S
    Chete - AS B 2006 971 310 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,260 27.8E 17.4S
+ Chewore 1 RS AS B 2010 1,488 468 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 840 29.9E 16.0S
    Chewore 1 RS AS B 2010 1,488 468 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 840 29.9E 16.0S
+ Chewore 2 NP AS B 2010 1,360 665 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 1,054 29.9E 16.0S
    Chewore 2 (North) NP AS B 2010 1,360 665 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 1,054 29.9E 16.0S
+ Chewore 3 RS AS B 2010 1,974 695 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 897 29.9E 16.0S
    Chewore 3 RS AS B 2010 1,974 695 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 897 29.9E 16.0S
+ Chewore 4 RS AS B 2010 226 294 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 610 29.9E 16.0S
    Chewore 4 (South) RS AS B 2010 226 294 Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011 2 610 29.9E 16.0S
+ Chiredzi River Conservancy DD GT E 2001 28 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 895 31.6E 20.8S
    Chiredzi River DD GT E 2001 28 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 895 31.6E 20.8S
+ Chirisa Safari Area - AS B 2006 4,231 1,260 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,529 28.3E 17.9S
    Chirisa - AS B 2006 4,231 1,260 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,529 28.3E 17.9S
+ Chizarira National Park - AS B 2006 3,071 1,117 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 2,084 27.9E 17.8S
    Chizarira - AS B 2006 3,071 1,117 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 2,084 27.9E 17.8S
+ Doma Safari Area DD AS E 2001 336 383 Mackie, 2002a 2 975 30.2E 16.4S
    Doma DD AS E 2001 336 383 Mackie, 2002a 2 975 30.2E 16.4S
+ Gonarezhou National Park RS AS B 2009 9,123 1,902 Dunham, et al., 2010 1 4,950 32.0E 21.5S
    Gonarezhou National Park RS AS B 2009 9,123 1,902 Dunham, et al., 2010 1 4,950 32.0E 21.5S
+ Hartley Safari Area DD O E 2001 100 20* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 445 29.6E 17.9S
    Hartley DD O E 2001 100 20* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 445 29.6E 17.9S
+ Home Farm & Greystone Ranches DD O E 2001 3 1* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 3 60 27.9E 20.8S
    Home Farm & Greystone DD O E 2001 3 1* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 3 60 27.9E 20.8S
+ Hwange National Park DD AS E 2001 44,492 5,770 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 12,900 26.6E 19.1S
    Hwange DD AS E 2001 44,492 5,770 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 12,900 26.6E 19.1S
+ Kariba Communal Areas - AS B 2006 3,715 1,033 Dunham et al., 2006a 1 3,224 28.4E 17.1S
    Kariba - AS B 2006 3,715 1,033 Dunham et al., 2006a 1 3,224 28.4E 17.1S
+ Kavira Forest Land DD O E 2001 100 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 287 27.0E 18.1S
    Kavira DD O E 2001 100 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 287 27.0E 18.1S
+ Lusulu DD AS E 2001 33 63 Mackie, 2002b 2 543 27.8E 18.0S
    Lusulu DD AS E 2001 33 63 Mackie, 2002b 2 543 27.8E 18.0S
+ Mahenye Ward DD AS E 2001 0 0 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 3 221 32.4E 21.2S
    Mahenye DD AS E 2001 0 0 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 3 221 32.4E 21.2S
+ Malapati Safari Area RS AS D 2009 0 Dunham, et al., 2010 3 175 32.0E 21.5S
    Malapati Safari Area RS AS D 2009 0 Dunham, et al., 2010 3 175 32.0E 21.5S
+ Malilangwe Conservancy DD AT E 2001 116 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 425 31.9E 21.1S
    Malilangwe DD AT E 2001 116 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 425 31.9E 21.1S
+ Mambali Communal Lands DD AT E 2001 10 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 327 28.4E 21.5S
    Mambali DD AT E 2001 10 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 327 28.4E 21.5S
+ Maramani Communal lands RS AT A 2010 0 Selier & Page, 2010 2 361 29.3E 22.1S
    River Ranch -Zhove Dam block RS AT A 2010 0 Selier & Page, 2010 2 361 29.3E 22.1S
+ Matabeleland Communal Land DD AS E 2001 64 79 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 3,110 27.1E 19.6S
    Matabeleland DD AS E 2001 64 79 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 3,110 27.1E 19.6S
+ Matetsi Safari Complex DD AS E 2001 4,201 1,670 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 4,399 25.7E 18.2S
    Matetsi DD AS E 2001 4,201 1,670 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 1 4,399 25.7E 18.2S
+ Matibi II Communal Lands - AS E 1996 0 Davies et al., 1996 2 400 31.7E 21.5S
    Matibi II - AS E 1996 0 Davies et al., 1996 2 400 31.7E 21.5S
+ Matusadona National Park - AS B 2006 1,925 443 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,413 28.6E 17.0S
    Matusadona - AS B 2006 1,925 443 Dunham et al., 2006a 2 1,413 28.6E 17.0S
+ Mavuradonha Wilderness Area DD AS E 2001 13 26 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 617 30.9E 16.5S
    Mavuradonha DD AS E 2001 13 26 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 617 30.9E 16.5S
+ Mukwiche Area DD AS E 2001 228 296 Mackie, 2002a 2 337 29.9E 16.4S
    Mukwiche DD AS E 2001 228 296 Mackie, 2002a 2 337 29.9E 16.4S
+ Ngamo & Sikumi State Forests DD AS E 2001 553 496 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 2,344 27.3E 18.8S
    Ngamo & Sikumi DD AS E 2001 553 496 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 2,344 27.3E 18.8S
+ North Gokwe Communal Lands - AS B 2006 192 172 Dunham et al., 2006a 1 3,082 28.5E 17.5S
    North Gokwe - AS B 2006 192 172 Dunham et al., 2006a 1 3,082 28.5E 17.5S
+ Nyatana Wildlife Management Area DD O E 2001 150 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 651 32.5E 16.7S
    Nyatana DD O E 2001 150 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 651 32.5E 16.7S
+ Protea Farm DD O E 2001 7 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 4 14 29.6E 16.5S
    Protea Farm DD O E 2001 7 Dunham & Mackie, 2002 4 14 29.6E 16.5S
+ Rest of Zambezi valley NA AS B 2003 15,870 2,224 Dunham, 2003 1 11,636 30.0E 15.9S
    Charara Safari Area NA AS B 2003 1,813 842 Dunham, 2003 2 1,670 30.0E 15.9S
    Dande Safari Area NA AS B 2003 2,850 1,028 Dunham, 2003 1 3,622 30.0E 15.9S
    Hurungwe Safari Area NA AS B 2003 4,732 1,230 Dunham, 2003 1 3,054 30.0E 15.9S
    Mana Pools National Park NA AS B 2003 4,285 1,046 Dunham, 2003 2 2,187 30.0E 15.9S
    Sapi Safari Area NA AS B 2003 2,190 758 Dunham, 2003 2 1,103 30.0E 15.9S
+ Save Valley Conservancy - AS B 2003 527 310 Dunham, 2003 1 3,047 32.1E 20.4S
    Save Valley - AS B 2003 527 310 Dunham, 2003 1 3,047 32.1E 20.4S
+ Sengwe Communal Land DT AS B 2009 23 34 Dunham, et al., 2010 2 1,987 32.0E 21.5S
    Communal lands DT AS B 2009 23 34 Dunham, et al., 2010 2 1,987 32.0E 21.5S
+ Sentinel & Nottingham RS AT A 2010 304 Selier & Page, 2010 2 760 29.3E 22.1S
    Nottingham & Sentinel Block RS AT A 2010 304 Selier & Page, 2010 2 760 29.3E 22.1S
+ Shangani Ranch DD O E 2001 60 20* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 628 29.3E 19.6S
    Shangani DD O E 2001 60 20* Dunham & Mackie, 2002 2 628 29.3E 19.6S
+ Sijarira Forest Area - AS B 2006 488 333 Dunham et al., 2006a 3 270 27.5E 17.6S
    Sijarira - AS B 2006 488 333 Dunham et al., 2006a 3 270 27.5E 17.6S
+ Tuli Circle Safari Area RS AT A 2010 0 Selier & Page, 2010 2 500 29.3E 22.1S
    Tuli Safari Area RS AT A 2010 0 Selier & Page, 2010 2 500 29.3E 22.1S

Zimbabwe: Summary

Very few new surveys were conducted in Zimbabwe since 2007, covering a small percentage of the overall population.  Half of the estimates included in the current update are now older than 10 years, resulting in an overall degradation of the quality of data from Zimbabwe.  This lack of systematic and updated monitoring data is of serious concern for possibly the third largest elephant population in Africa. As a result of the data degradation, the DEFINITE category has seen a drop of 41,536, while the SPECULATIVES have increased by 45,084.  Only 8 of the estimates in this update were as a result of repeated surveys, increasing the number of DEFINITE elephants by 3,759.

The 2010 aerial sample count of Chewore Safari Area covered part of the previous valley-wide survey (Zambezi Valley 2003 – Dunham 2004a), as well as repeating the survey of Chewore4 (Mackie 2002a).  Chewore 4 replaced the 2001 survey of the same area.  Although Chewore 2 had previously been surveyed in a 2001 count (Mackie 2002b), that estimate was not included in the 2007 African Elephant Status Report, and so the 2010 count for Chewore 2 was included in the current analysis as a New Population.  Chewore Safari Area (Chewore 1 and Chewore 3) replaced those strata from the 2003 Zambezi Valley count (originally included in the 2007 AESR area Zambezi Valley.  The remaining strata of the 2003 Zambezi Valley count were retained as a New Analysis, named Rest of Zambezi Valley. 

Aerial total counts of the Nottingham and Sentinel area and the Tuli Circle Safari Area in 2010 replaced the 2001 total counts of those areas.  The 2009 aerial sample count of the communal land adjacent to Gonarezhou National Park replaced the 2001 guess for the Sengwe Communal Land. The Malapati Safari Area and Gonarezhou National Park were resurveyed in 2009 using the same methodology and coverage as previous surveys of those areas. The River Ranch-Zhove Dam area, surveyed in 2010 with an aerial total count, replaced the previous estimate for the Maramani Communal Land. 

Apart from the areas noted above, there were no other new estimates available for the elephant populations in Zimbabwe. 

* Range of informed guess

1 Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2 Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table

3 PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.elephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.