|Aerial or Ground Total Counts||33,692||0||0||0|
|Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts||95,670||11,860||11,860||0|
|Other Dung Counts||449||1,106||263||0|
|Data Category||Known Range||Possible Range||Total Range|
|Aerial or Ground Total Counts||113,822||14,928||128,749|
|Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts||263,288||19,043||282,332|
|Other Dung Counts||1,849||3||1,852|
|Country||Definite||Probable||Possible||Speculative||Range Area (km²)||% of Regional Range||% of Range Assessed||IQI1||PFS2|
Although there were no new estimates for three countries in Eastern Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia), the major populations in the subregion were surveyed since the 2007 update from the African Elephant Database.
A number of new areas were surveyed, mainly in the southern part of Sudan. In 2011, South Sudan became an independent state, and all of the surveyed elephant areas are in the newly created country. Anecdotal reports of movement from Ethiopia and Eritrea into Sudan were reported at the 2012 African elephant range States meeting, which may warrant retaining Sudan as a range State, but as of the current update, there was no confirmation of these movements.
While overall estimates from Repeat Surveys show an increase in DEFINITES + PROBABLES (+3,376 ), the estimates should be also be viewed in the context of a surge in poaching across the subregion, particularly since 2010. PIKE levels for Eastern Africa increased in 2010 and 2011, with the 2011 figure of 0.6 above the threshold at which elephant populations may be in decline across MIKE sites in the subregion. 2011 PIKE levels in the three largest populations in the subregion (Laikipia Samburu and Tsavo in Kenya, and Selous Mikumi in Tanzania) were above 0.6. Carcass ratios in a number of recent surveys across the subregion are in alignment with the results from MIKE. Demographic and behavioural research at one of the most well-studied MIKE sites, the Laikipia Samburu Ecosystem, shows the impact that poaching is having on this important population.
In recent years, Tanzania and Kenya have emerged in the latest ETIS cluster analysis as important transit countries for raw ivory departing the continent, with nearly half of the large-scale ivory seizures during the period 2009-2011 implicating the ocean seaports of Mombasa, Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar. Uganda and Ethiopia also emerged in the most recent ETIS analysis as countries of concern in the illegal ivory trade. Somalia has never submitted a single elephant product seizure to ETIS.
Land use change and habitat fragmentation continue to threaten elephant range across this subregion, although some policy instruments are now in place to provide a framework for long-term planning for these ecosystems. The East African CommunityTransboundary Ecosystems Bill was approved by the East African Legislative Assembly in 2012. Both Kenya and Tanzania launched new elephant management plans in 2012.
1 IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).
2 PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.
Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.elephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.